Healthier Kenyans, Wealthier Treasury: The Case for Stronger Tobacco Taxation in Kenya

This policy brief presents findings from the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM) for Kenya, assessing how changes in cigarette excise taxes influence prices, affordability, consumption, smoking prevalence, premature deaths, and government revenue between 2025 and 2029. The analysis demonstrates that stronger tobacco taxation is a highly effective tool for reducing smoking and preventing premature deaths while generating additional public revenue to support national development priorities.

The findings show that large, sustained increases in excise taxes could significantly reduce smoking rates and cigarette consumption. For instance, a 50 percent annual increase in excise tax is projected to lower smoking prevalence substantially and reduce overall cigarette consumption over time. These reductions would translate into major public health gains, including a significant number of premature deaths averted.

Despite past reforms, cigarettes in Kenya remain relatively affordable, with income growth and inflation offsetting recent tax increases. The study highlights that well-designed and consistently implemented tax policies can both reduce tobacco use and increase government revenue, even as consumption declines. Regular adjustments that outpace inflation and income growth are critical to maintaining the effectiveness of tobacco taxation. Overall, strengthening tobacco tax policy presents a clear win-win opportunity for improving public health outcomes and enhancing domestic resource mobilization.